Haitian Flavor (603288): Hengqiang, the leader in the catering cycle
The growth prospects of the condiment industry have gradually increased.
The growth rate of condiments has gradually reached expectations, and it is in the development stage of continuous product segmentation and upgrading and increasing concentration.
However, the growth trend of per capita consumption, there is still room for contradictory growth in the volume of the industry; at the same time, under the general trend of consumption upgrades, price increases, product upgrades, etc. will bring the average price of the industry up, and volume and price will remain the main theme of the future industry.
As a 杭州桑拿 leader in the industry, the company’s advantages such as brand, scale, and channel are constantly increasing, and its peers are difficult to surpass, and the city’s share will continue to increase.
“Troika”, small categories go hand in hand, and the product upgrade trend is obvious.
As soy sauce, oyster sauce and seasoning sauce as the company’s “three carriages”, in recent years, the gross profit margin has continued to increase.
1. Soy sauce: Concentrated condiment industry, volume and price rise are still the main theme of the industry, the leading performance of the strong Hengqiang; high-end products continue to increase, the proportion of high-end, low-end products from the original 1: 6: 3, adjusted to 2016About 3: 6: 1 in the first three quarters, we estimate that the proportion of high-end products has exceeded 30%.
2. Oyster sauce: The market size is still small and needs further growth; the company has advantages such as cost and channels, and its market share ranks first in the industry.
3, seasoning sauce: the taste is very different, the market is very scattered; the company currently relies on soy sauce alkaline.
The channel management ability is strong, and the growth rate of catering revenue does not need to be adjusted excessively.
Excellent product strength has created a strong channel management and control capability. The channel has been sinking continuously, the number of dealers has continued to increase, and the prefecture-level cities have achieved 100% coverage.
The stickiness of catering channels has decreased. Historical data also shows that the company’s ability to resist catering cycles has not required excessive intervention for the growth of the catering industry’s revenue growth.
The ton price pushed up the gross profit margin and increased investment in advertising and promotion.
The company’s gross profit margin was 32 in 2010.
99% continued to rise to 46 in 2018.
47% is basically brought by the ton price increase; at the same time, the ton cost has hardly changed, demonstrating excellent cost control ability.
The sales expense ratio increased significantly from 2016, mainly due to the increase in advertising costs and promotion costs.
The company’s financial statements are excellent, strong for upstream and downstream, and very strong cash flow.
Its strength is in high profit margin and high turnover rate. The company’s ROE is maintained at more than 30% throughout the year. In 2018, the company’s ROE was 34.
06% (net margin 25.
62%, asset turnover rate is 0.
93 times, equity multiplier 1.
Earnings and estimates.
We expect the company’s EPS to be 1 in 19-21.
78 yuan, which is 49-63 times the PE of the comparable company in 2019.
Considering that the company is an absolute leader in the industry, its brand, channel and product strength are all excellent, and it is constantly strengthening, giving the company a certain estimated premium and giving the company 55-65 times PE in 2019.
Combined with the absolute valuation method, the company’s overall market value range is 2928-3461 trillion, which corresponds to a reasonable value range of 108.
05 yuan, given a “preliminary market” rating.
The business climate of the catering industry has deteriorated; the impact of fluctuations in raw material prices; and increased competition in the industry.