Panzhihua Iron and Vanadium Titanium (000629): Q1 2019 results exceeded 50% in the quarter
The company released a performance forecast, which is expected to grow 56-77% in Q1 2019. On April 10, 2019, the company issued a 2019Q1 performance forecast: The company expects to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in Q1 2019.
30,000 yuan, an increase of 56 from the first quarter of 2018?
77%, a 20-30% decrease from the fourth quarter of 2018; basic expected earnings are zero.
097 yuan, an increase of 0 from the first quarter of 2018.
042 yuan, down by 0 compared with the fourth quarter of 2018.
035 yuan, performance in line with our previous expectations.
The price trend of vanadium products is in line with our previous estimates, and the performance forecast is unchanged. The company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 0.
The highest demand for vanadium products in 2019 is still upward, and in the short term, real estate construction or upwards will pull thread demand and replace the price of vanadium products. Refer to the valuation of comparable companies and give the company a “Buy” rating.
The price of vanadium products in Q1 2019 dropped significantly from the previous month, and the sales volume will be limited in the future. The average price of vanadium pentoxide (98% tablets, Sichuan) in 2019Q1 is 22.
83 thousand tons / ton, an increase of 29% over the first quarter of 2018 and a decrease of 45% over the fourth quarter of 2018.
According to the company’s performance forecast, in the first quarter of 2019, the company’s performance went up and up. In addition to the upward price of vanadium, sales of titanium products increased due to the company’s vanadium.
We believe that the company ‘s maximum production capacity of vanadium and titanium products has been placed. Without considering the related capacity injection of Xichang Steel vanadium, the company ‘s product sales growth will be limited in the future.
It is expected that the demand for vanadium products will increase in 2019. A new standard for steel bars for real estate construction investment has been implemented in November 2018. Although steel companies have avoided alternative costs by seeking alternatives and improved processes, in terms of implementation time, the new standard will be gradually implemented in 2019.In this way, the total demand may rise in early 2018, and the vanadium price may stabilize in the later stage.
In the first two months of 2019, the growth rate of new housing starts was 6%, an increase of 3pct compared to the same period last year, and a year-on-year decrease of 11pct compared to the same period in 2018. Looking at real estate or pressure in the medium and long term; considering the growth rate of real estate construction investment last yearDeparture from the growth rate of new construction, land construction may go up this year, construction project investment growth may be better than last year, short-term demand or optimism.
In addition, due to the loosening of environmental protection in 2019 and the upward impact of effective production capacity due to environmental protection relocation, the rebar price may decline in 2019, and the growth capacity of vanadium price may be exchanged. In summary, the average price of vanadium products in 2019 may decline slightly.
Xichang Steel Vanadium is expected to be injected into the company in the future, giving the company a “Buy” rating and considering the managed 杭州夜网 Xichang Steel Vanadium.
The highest output, the company’s current actual production capacity of vanadium products is about 4 inches, the industry leader position is stable.
According to the Anshan Iron and Steel Group’s pledge to clear competition from the industry and Xichang Steel’s vanadium business data, Xichang Steel’s vanadium has been injected into the company in 2020, but the injection time has not yet been determined, so the profit forecast is not considered for the time being.
Keeping the previous performance forecast unchanged, the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 0.
40 yuan, corresponding to PE is 9.
Currently the company PE (2019E, wind consensus forecast) is 10.
06. According to the forecasted increase in the proportion of gross profit in 2019, taking 成都桑拿网 into account the overall demand or upward in 2019 and the discount on diversified operations, the company will be given November 2019.
89 times PE estimate, 2019 forecast EPS 0.
39 yuan, corresponding to the target price of 4.
08 yuan, given a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: New construction of real estate starts, construction growth rate is less than expected; macro economy is less than expected